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Day: June 13, 2024

Russia - Ukraine war

As Ukraine focuses on drone warfare, its military creates new Unmanned Systems Forces branch – Yahoo! Voices

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

As Ukraine focuses on drone warfare, its military creates new Unmanned Systems Forces branch Yahoo! Voices

Russia News

В партии «Республиканцы» — раскол по вопросу об альянсе с Марин Ле Пен

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

Срочно созванное собрание руководства французской партии «Республиканцы» единогласно исключило председателя партии Эрика Сьотти, который призывал к альянсу с партией «Национальное объединение» — лидером опросов общественного мнения по первому туру досрочных выборов в Национальное собрание…

Russia News

Дело о втором гражданстве экс-президента Армении остаётся в предварительной стадии

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

Предварительное следствие по уголовному делу об иностранном гражданстве экс-президента Армении Армена Саркисяна продолжается. Об этом в ответ на запрос «Sputnik Армения» сообщили в Следственном комитете (СК) республики.

Russia News

Министр обороны Сербии прибыл с официальным визитом в Казахстан

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

В Астану с официальным визитом прибыл министр обороны Сербии Братислав Гашич, сообщает «Sputnik Казахстан».

Russia News

Россия нарастила экспорт в Бразилию выше миллиарда долларов

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

Объем экспорта увеличился на 43% в годовом выражении.

Russia News

ООН: число беженцев и перемещенных лиц в мире превысило 120 млн человек

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

Люди в основном сбегают от преследований, конфликтов, насилия и нарушений прав человека.

Russia - Ukraine war

Russia could face €30bn climate reparations bill for Ukraine war – Euronews

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

Russia could face €30bn climate reparations bill for Ukraine war Euronews

Russia News

Vladimir Putin, the man who knows how to bide his time – EL PAÍS USA

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

Vladimir Putin, the man who knows how to bide his time EL PAÍS USA

Russia - Ukraine war

Biden, Zelensky to sign 10-year U.S.-Ukraine security deal at G-7 summit – The Washington Post

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

Biden, Zelensky to sign 10-year U.S.-Ukraine security deal at G-7 summit The Washington Post

Russia - Ukraine war

China and Russia Are Beating the US in Africa – Bloomberg

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

China and Russia Are Beating the US in Africa Bloomberg

Conversations with the Gemini

Podcast by Gemini, Google AI, Michael Novakhov

Russia-NATO Confrontation Risks and Predictions
https://share.gemini.google/FWAMNxrH8C1o
Created with 3.1 Pro August 27, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Published August 27, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Russia – NATO confrontation: assessments of risk, analysis of the geopolitical motivations, predictions

You are looking for an assessment of the risks, geopolitical motivations, and future predictions surrounding the confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Here is a breakdown of how think tanks and experts evaluate the evolving Russia-NATO confrontation as of mid-2026.

Geopolitical Motivations
Russia’s actions are driven by deep-seated geopolitical and domestic objectives, largely centered on reshaping the European security architecture.

Fracturing the Alliance: According to analysis by the Belfer Center, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance and undermine confidence in its collective defense commitment (Article 5).
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Preventing Political/Economic Expansion: Russia perceives itself as locked in a long-term, existential struggle with NATO, seeking to counter Western political and economic expansion into what it considers its sphere of influence.
CSIS

Exploiting Transatlantic Strains: Moscow actively seeks to capitalize on perceived weaknesses or divisions within the alliance, particularly regarding the scale and reliability of U.S. support under shifting political dynamics in Washington.
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Risk Assessments and Current State of Confrontation
The risk of a full-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia remains low but catastrophic, while the immediate and growing danger lies in a “gray zone” or “shadow war” campaign.

The Escalating Shadow War
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Eurasia Group note that as the conventional war in Ukraine continues (or even if it pauses), the conflict with NATO is shifting toward hybrid warfare.
Eurasia Group

CSIS data highlights that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, continuing to rise. This escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion aims to impose costs on NATO for its support of Ukraine without triggering a conventional military response.
CSIS

Key Tactics Include:

Infrastructure Sabotage: Arson, explosives, and physical attacks targeting transportation, military bases, warehouses, and critical infrastructure.
CSIS

Electronic Warfare and Cyberattacks: Increasing use of electronic attacks and probes of airspace.
Eurasia Group

Disinformation and Subversion: Funding far-right extremist groups, election interference, and massive disinformation campaigns designed to exploit domestic societal divisions.
Eurasia Group

The Conventional Posture
While NATO seeks to avoid direct military confrontation, both sides are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

NATO Preparations: The alliance has stepped up military deterrence, conducting operations like Eastern Sentry, Baltic Sentry, and Arctic Sentry to protect strategic airspace and underwater infrastructure. However, analysts note significant capability gaps remain in air defense and long-range strikes.
russiancouncil.ru
+ 1

Russian Reconstitution: According to CSIS, Russia is adapting to a wartime economy, rapidly scaling the production of weapons proven in Ukraine, which creates an asymmetric threat to NATO’s defense industrial base.
CSIS

Predictions for 2026 and Beyond
Looking forward, analysts predict a period of intense instability and potential limited escalation.

A Limited Military Incursion: A key scenario explored by the Belfer Center suggests that within the next few years, Russia’s gray-zone campaign could culminate in a limited, fast-moving incursion into a NATO border state (such as the Baltics). Using unmarked proxies or unmanned systems, Moscow
…