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Day: July 14, 2024

Russia - Ukraine war

Ukraine war briefing: Russia launches ‘double tap’ missile attack on a small town near Kharkiv – The Guardian

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date July 14, 2024

Ukraine war briefing: Russia launches ‘double tap’ missile attack on a small town near Kharkiv The Guardian

Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter

@mikenov: FBI – #FBI: “BUTLER, PA: CROOKS!” – Are these the telling names? Where there more than one shooter? Was Crooks killed by them? It looks very similar to the pattern of mass shootings. Did they plan to provoke the deadly stampede? Are they going to blame it on ANTIFA? Is this a…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date July 14, 2024

FBI – #FBI:
“BUTLER, PA: CROOKS!” – Are these the telling names? Where there more than one shooter? Was Crooks killed by them? It looks very similar to the pattern of mass shootings. Did they plan to provoke the deadly stampede?
Are they going to blame it on ANTIFA? Is this a…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) July 14, 2024

Putin and Putinism

Mário Vieira da Silva – Processos – Jusbrasil

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date July 14, 2024

O Jusbrasil encontrou 444 processos que mencionam o nome Mário Vieira da Silva. A maioria é do TJSP, seguido por TJRJ. Desses processos encontrados, Fazenda do Estado de São Paulo foi a parte que mais apareceu, seguido por Fazenda Publica do Estado de São Paulo.

Russia - Ukraine war

@Newsweek: RT @Newsweek: LIVE: Trump injured, at least one dead as FBI names shooter Trump said a bullet pierced part of his ear when a gunman opened…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date July 14, 2024

LIVE: Trump injured, at least one dead as FBI names shooter

Trump said a bullet pierced part of his ear when a gunman opened fire at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Saturday night. Follow below for live updates. ⬇️

🔗 – https://t.co/F4dusMMl2K pic.twitter.com/lrskTknmBf

— Newsweek (@Newsweek) July 14, 2024

Russia News

Кремль: Москва и Вашингтон продолжают находиться в глубокой конфронтации

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date July 14, 2024

Пресс-секретарь президента России Дмитрий Песков подтвердил, что Москва и Вашингтон находятся в стадии глубокой конфронтации. Причем, по мнению официального представителя Кремля, предпосылок для выхода из этой ситуации нет.

Russia News

NYT: стрелявший в Трампа не имел криминального прошлого

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date July 14, 2024

Официальные лица пока не определили мотив злоумышленника.

Russia News

При обстреле ВСУ поселка в Белгородском районе ранены 4 мирных жителя

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date July 14, 2024

Среди пострадавших есть 9-месячный ребенок.

Russia News

Песков: Россия и США находятся в стадии глубокой конфронтации

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date July 14, 2024

Предпосылок для выхода из этого пике сейчас нет.

Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter

@Newsweek: RT @Newsweek: LIVE: Trump injured, at least one dead as FBI names shooter Trump said a bullet pierced part of his ear when a gunman opened…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date July 14, 2024

LIVE: Trump injured, at least one dead as FBI names shooter

Trump said a bullet pierced part of his ear when a gunman opened fire at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Saturday night. Follow below for live updates. ⬇️

🔗 – https://t.co/F4dusMMl2K pic.twitter.com/lrskTknmBf

— Newsweek (@Newsweek) July 14, 2024

Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter

@FBI: RT @FBI: Updated FBI statement on the ongoing incident that took place today in Butler, Pennsylvania. https://t.co/6fWqcTbA1S

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date July 14, 2024

Updated FBI statement on the ongoing incident that took place today in Butler, Pennsylvania. https://t.co/MfwVeYs3kF pic.twitter.com/6fWqcTbA1S

— FBI (@FBI) July 14, 2024

Conversations with the Gemini

Podcast by Gemini, Google AI, Michael Novakhov

Russia-NATO Confrontation Risks and Predictions
https://share.gemini.google/FWAMNxrH8C1o
Created with 3.1 Pro August 27, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Published August 27, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Russia – NATO confrontation: assessments of risk, analysis of the geopolitical motivations, predictions

You are looking for an assessment of the risks, geopolitical motivations, and future predictions surrounding the confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Here is a breakdown of how think tanks and experts evaluate the evolving Russia-NATO confrontation as of mid-2026.

Geopolitical Motivations
Russia’s actions are driven by deep-seated geopolitical and domestic objectives, largely centered on reshaping the European security architecture.

Fracturing the Alliance: According to analysis by the Belfer Center, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance and undermine confidence in its collective defense commitment (Article 5).
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Preventing Political/Economic Expansion: Russia perceives itself as locked in a long-term, existential struggle with NATO, seeking to counter Western political and economic expansion into what it considers its sphere of influence.
CSIS

Exploiting Transatlantic Strains: Moscow actively seeks to capitalize on perceived weaknesses or divisions within the alliance, particularly regarding the scale and reliability of U.S. support under shifting political dynamics in Washington.
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Risk Assessments and Current State of Confrontation
The risk of a full-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia remains low but catastrophic, while the immediate and growing danger lies in a “gray zone” or “shadow war” campaign.

The Escalating Shadow War
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Eurasia Group note that as the conventional war in Ukraine continues (or even if it pauses), the conflict with NATO is shifting toward hybrid warfare.
Eurasia Group

CSIS data highlights that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, continuing to rise. This escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion aims to impose costs on NATO for its support of Ukraine without triggering a conventional military response.
CSIS

Key Tactics Include:

Infrastructure Sabotage: Arson, explosives, and physical attacks targeting transportation, military bases, warehouses, and critical infrastructure.
CSIS

Electronic Warfare and Cyberattacks: Increasing use of electronic attacks and probes of airspace.
Eurasia Group

Disinformation and Subversion: Funding far-right extremist groups, election interference, and massive disinformation campaigns designed to exploit domestic societal divisions.
Eurasia Group

The Conventional Posture
While NATO seeks to avoid direct military confrontation, both sides are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

NATO Preparations: The alliance has stepped up military deterrence, conducting operations like Eastern Sentry, Baltic Sentry, and Arctic Sentry to protect strategic airspace and underwater infrastructure. However, analysts note significant capability gaps remain in air defense and long-range strikes.
russiancouncil.ru
+ 1

Russian Reconstitution: According to CSIS, Russia is adapting to a wartime economy, rapidly scaling the production of weapons proven in Ukraine, which creates an asymmetric threat to NATO’s defense industrial base.
CSIS

Predictions for 2026 and Beyond
Looking forward, analysts predict a period of intense instability and potential limited escalation.

A Limited Military Incursion: A key scenario explored by the Belfer Center suggests that within the next few years, Russia’s gray-zone campaign could culminate in a limited, fast-moving incursion into a NATO border state (such as the Baltics). Using unmarked proxies or unmanned systems, Moscow
…