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Day: October 15, 2024

Putin and Putinism

Trump’s Changing Views on Talking to Foreign Leaders – The New York Times

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 15, 2024

Trump’s Changing Views on Talking to Foreign Leaders The New York Times

Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter

@mikenov: Встреча с главой госкорпорации «Росатом» Алексеем Лихачёвым • Президент России kremlin.ru/events/preside… newrepublic.com/article/151002…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 15, 2024

Встреча с главой госкорпорации «Росатом» Алексеем Лихачёвым • Президент России https://t.co/DUuIXoEkk5 https://t.co/ZDscV8P7PE pic.twitter.com/PPawDLeAmZ

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) October 15, 2024

Weapons for Ukraine

Best Furnace Repair in Dumfries, VA Near Me

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 15, 2024

Common furnace problems include faulty thermostats, dirty filters, and pilot light issues. We provide comprehensive furnace repair services in Dumfries, VA, handling these and other problems to ensure your home remains comfortable. Our team is trained to work with all furnace brands and models, offering reliable repair services you can trust.

Russia and Ukraine

Microsoft Outlook (anteriormente Hotmail): Correo electrónico y …

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 15, 2024

Accede a los correos electrónicos personales, del trabajo o de la escuela en la aplicación Outlook para escritorio y móvil, incluidos Outlook.com, Gmail, Yahoo!, iCloud y más.

Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter

@haaretzcom: RT @haaretzcom: Trump boat parade in Florida features white supremacist chants, swastika flags / @RachelSFink https://t.co/1bL9VLhrwo

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 15, 2024

Trump boat parade in Florida features white supremacist chants, swastika flags / @RachelSFink https://t.co/1bL9VLhrwo

— Haaretz.com (@haaretzcom) October 15, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine war: Meet Bucha’s female unit who gun down Russian drones – BBC.com

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 15, 2024

Ukraine war: Meet Bucha’s female unit who gun down Russian drones BBC.com

Russia and Ukraine

@KyivIndependent: European Council President Charles Michel announced on Oct. 15 that he had invited President Volodymyr Zelensky to present his victory plan for defeating Russia at a summit of EU leaders this week. kyivindependent.com/european-counc…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 15, 2024

European Council President Charles Michel announced on Oct. 15 that he had invited President Volodymyr Zelensky to present his victory plan for defeating Russia at a summit of EU leaders this week.https://t.co/xbR9xvQ78m

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 15, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

Министр обороны РФ Белоусов поздравил военных, освобождавших Михайловку в ДНР

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 15, 2024

Министр обороны РФ Белоусов поздравил военных, освобождавших Михайловку в ДНР

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine amps up drone production to get an edge in war against Russia : NPR

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 15, 2024

Ukraine has dramatically amped up domestic production of both attack and reconnaissance drones since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

Russia and Ukraine

US ‘concerned’ about reports of North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russia in Ukraine

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 15, 2024

The U.S. says it is “concerned” about reports of North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russian troops in the war against Ukraine, calling it “a new level of desperation.”

Conversations with the Gemini

Podcast by Gemini, Google AI, Michael Novakhov

Russia-NATO Confrontation Risks and Predictions
https://share.gemini.google/FWAMNxrH8C1o
Created with 3.1 Pro August 27, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Published August 27, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Russia – NATO confrontation: assessments of risk, analysis of the geopolitical motivations, predictions

You are looking for an assessment of the risks, geopolitical motivations, and future predictions surrounding the confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Here is a breakdown of how think tanks and experts evaluate the evolving Russia-NATO confrontation as of mid-2026.

Geopolitical Motivations
Russia’s actions are driven by deep-seated geopolitical and domestic objectives, largely centered on reshaping the European security architecture.

Fracturing the Alliance: According to analysis by the Belfer Center, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance and undermine confidence in its collective defense commitment (Article 5).
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Preventing Political/Economic Expansion: Russia perceives itself as locked in a long-term, existential struggle with NATO, seeking to counter Western political and economic expansion into what it considers its sphere of influence.
CSIS

Exploiting Transatlantic Strains: Moscow actively seeks to capitalize on perceived weaknesses or divisions within the alliance, particularly regarding the scale and reliability of U.S. support under shifting political dynamics in Washington.
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Risk Assessments and Current State of Confrontation
The risk of a full-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia remains low but catastrophic, while the immediate and growing danger lies in a “gray zone” or “shadow war” campaign.

The Escalating Shadow War
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Eurasia Group note that as the conventional war in Ukraine continues (or even if it pauses), the conflict with NATO is shifting toward hybrid warfare.
Eurasia Group

CSIS data highlights that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, continuing to rise. This escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion aims to impose costs on NATO for its support of Ukraine without triggering a conventional military response.
CSIS

Key Tactics Include:

Infrastructure Sabotage: Arson, explosives, and physical attacks targeting transportation, military bases, warehouses, and critical infrastructure.
CSIS

Electronic Warfare and Cyberattacks: Increasing use of electronic attacks and probes of airspace.
Eurasia Group

Disinformation and Subversion: Funding far-right extremist groups, election interference, and massive disinformation campaigns designed to exploit domestic societal divisions.
Eurasia Group

The Conventional Posture
While NATO seeks to avoid direct military confrontation, both sides are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

NATO Preparations: The alliance has stepped up military deterrence, conducting operations like Eastern Sentry, Baltic Sentry, and Arctic Sentry to protect strategic airspace and underwater infrastructure. However, analysts note significant capability gaps remain in air defense and long-range strikes.
russiancouncil.ru
+ 1

Russian Reconstitution: According to CSIS, Russia is adapting to a wartime economy, rapidly scaling the production of weapons proven in Ukraine, which creates an asymmetric threat to NATO’s defense industrial base.
CSIS

Predictions for 2026 and Beyond
Looking forward, analysts predict a period of intense instability and potential limited escalation.

A Limited Military Incursion: A key scenario explored by the Belfer Center suggests that within the next few years, Russia’s gray-zone campaign could culminate in a limited, fast-moving incursion into a NATO border state (such as the Baltics). Using unmarked proxies or unmanned systems, Moscow
…