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Day: October 29, 2024

L3Harris Unit Making Rocket Motors Used in Ukraine Says Business Has Surged

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 29, 2024

By Mike Stone HUNTSVILLE, Alabama (Reuters) – L3Harris Technologies’ subsidiary Aerojet Rocketdyne has doubled its monthly production of motors for GMLRS rockets that are heavily used in Ukraine, a company executive said on Tuesday, as global demand surges to supply Kyiv and to rebuild shrinking …

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine and Russia in talks about halting strikes on energy plants – Financial Times

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 29, 2024

Ukraine and Russia in talks about halting strikes on energy plants Financial Times

Russia and Ukraine

@KyivIndependent: Unknown to the general public outside Russia, Sergei Kiriyenko, Putin’s first deputy chief of staff, holds enormous sway over the Kremlin’s war effort and its control of Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine. kyivindependent.com/who-is-sergei-…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 29, 2024

Unknown to the general public outside Russia, Sergei Kiriyenko, Putin’s first deputy chief of staff, holds enormous sway over the Kremlin’s war effort and its control of Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.https://t.co/DB4zSRz7qH

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 29, 2024

Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter

@politico: RT by @mikenov: Lincoln Project runs digital ad aimed at Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania ow.ly/zrvq105Nl63

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 29, 2024

Lincoln Project runs digital ad aimed at Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania https://t.co/AGRdx21UWh

— POLITICO (@politico) October 29, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says Russia war is being pushed ‘beyond borders’ – Al Jazeera English

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 29, 2024

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says Russia war is being pushed ‘beyond borders’ Al Jazeera English

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says Russia war is being pushed ‘beyond borders’

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 29, 2024

Ukrainian president’s remarks come as a number of North Korean troops arrive in Russia’s Kursk region.

Russia and Ukraine

Kyiv Should Strike North Koreans If They Fight in Ukraine, Biden Says

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 29, 2024

Ukraine should strike North Korean troops if they enter the country to fight alongside Russia, President Joe Biden said, as officials warned the soldiers are expected to move closer to the front line over the next few weeks.

Russia and Ukraine

Rheinmetall responds to Russian threats of attacks on their facilities in Ukraine

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 29, 2024

The German concern Rheinmetall said that the production of weapons in Ukraine is well protected and this is not the first time they have heard threats from the Kremlin.

Russia and Ukraine

@visegrad24: If you want your friends and family to be well informed and on top of the news, get them to join you on 𝕏…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 29, 2024

If you want your friends and family to be well informed and on top of the news, get them to join you on 𝕏… pic.twitter.com/1q36BfDwat

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 29, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

@visegrad24: If you care about America, if you love Poland, vote Trump. He will stop communists, he will stop gender madness, he will stop all these crazy leftists, says Poland’s most famous politician @D_Tarczynski, as he encourages Polish-Americans to vote. 🇵🇱🇺🇸

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 29, 2024

If you care about America, if you love Poland, vote Trump.

He will stop communists, he will stop gender madness, he will stop all these crazy leftists,

says Poland’s most famous politician @D_Tarczynski, as he encourages Polish-Americans to vote. 🇵🇱🇺🇸pic.twitter.com/UVwWjYKSd2

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 29, 2024

Conversations with the Gemini

Podcast by Gemini, Google AI, Michael Novakhov

Russia-NATO Confrontation Risks and Predictions
https://share.gemini.google/FWAMNxrH8C1o
Created with 3.1 Pro August 27, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Published August 27, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Russia – NATO confrontation: assessments of risk, analysis of the geopolitical motivations, predictions

You are looking for an assessment of the risks, geopolitical motivations, and future predictions surrounding the confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Here is a breakdown of how think tanks and experts evaluate the evolving Russia-NATO confrontation as of mid-2026.

Geopolitical Motivations
Russia’s actions are driven by deep-seated geopolitical and domestic objectives, largely centered on reshaping the European security architecture.

Fracturing the Alliance: According to analysis by the Belfer Center, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance and undermine confidence in its collective defense commitment (Article 5).
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Preventing Political/Economic Expansion: Russia perceives itself as locked in a long-term, existential struggle with NATO, seeking to counter Western political and economic expansion into what it considers its sphere of influence.
CSIS

Exploiting Transatlantic Strains: Moscow actively seeks to capitalize on perceived weaknesses or divisions within the alliance, particularly regarding the scale and reliability of U.S. support under shifting political dynamics in Washington.
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Risk Assessments and Current State of Confrontation
The risk of a full-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia remains low but catastrophic, while the immediate and growing danger lies in a “gray zone” or “shadow war” campaign.

The Escalating Shadow War
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Eurasia Group note that as the conventional war in Ukraine continues (or even if it pauses), the conflict with NATO is shifting toward hybrid warfare.
Eurasia Group

CSIS data highlights that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, continuing to rise. This escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion aims to impose costs on NATO for its support of Ukraine without triggering a conventional military response.
CSIS

Key Tactics Include:

Infrastructure Sabotage: Arson, explosives, and physical attacks targeting transportation, military bases, warehouses, and critical infrastructure.
CSIS

Electronic Warfare and Cyberattacks: Increasing use of electronic attacks and probes of airspace.
Eurasia Group

Disinformation and Subversion: Funding far-right extremist groups, election interference, and massive disinformation campaigns designed to exploit domestic societal divisions.
Eurasia Group

The Conventional Posture
While NATO seeks to avoid direct military confrontation, both sides are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

NATO Preparations: The alliance has stepped up military deterrence, conducting operations like Eastern Sentry, Baltic Sentry, and Arctic Sentry to protect strategic airspace and underwater infrastructure. However, analysts note significant capability gaps remain in air defense and long-range strikes.
russiancouncil.ru
+ 1

Russian Reconstitution: According to CSIS, Russia is adapting to a wartime economy, rapidly scaling the production of weapons proven in Ukraine, which creates an asymmetric threat to NATO’s defense industrial base.
CSIS

Predictions for 2026 and Beyond
Looking forward, analysts predict a period of intense instability and potential limited escalation.

A Limited Military Incursion: A key scenario explored by the Belfer Center suggests that within the next few years, Russia’s gray-zone campaign could culminate in a limited, fast-moving incursion into a NATO border state (such as the Baltics). Using unmarked proxies or unmanned systems, Moscow
…