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Day: November 4, 2024

@mikenov: Good FBI agents have endorsed Donald Trump: ‘Contaminated by political bias’ https://t.co/hyhCs9yhfP Good FBI agents who want to end the weaponization of the justice system have endorsed Donald Trump as the only hope for reforming the bureau. The “public’s safety and national…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 4, 2024

Good FBI agents have endorsed Donald Trump: ‘Contaminated by political bias’ https://t.co/hyhCs9yhfP
Good FBI agents who want to end the weaponization of the justice system have endorsed Donald Trump as the only hope for reforming the bureau.

The “public’s safety and national…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) November 4, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

U.S. citizen who helped Russia from Ukraine appears in Moscow

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 4, 2024

Daniel Martindale said he had worked as a missionary and entered Ukraine from Poland in early 2022, days before Russia’s invasion.

Putin and Putinism

Baptist Heart Specialists – Baptist North – 11236 Baptist Health Dr …

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 4, 2024

Baptist Heart Specialists – Baptist North at 11236 Baptist Health Dr Suite 310, Jacksonville, FL 32218, USA – hours, address, map, directions, phone number, customer ratings and reviews.

Russia and Ukraine

Putin Lost a Round in Moldova. The Fight’s Far From Over.

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 4, 2024

Election meddling is part of the Kremlin’s zero-sum game.

Russia and Ukraine

European leaders breathe a sigh of relief as pro-EU candidate wins Moldova election

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 4, 2024

European leaders congratulated pro-Western incumbent Maia Sandu on winning a run-off vote in Moldova’s presidential election at the week

Russia and Ukraine

North Korean soldiers ‘gun down Russian comrades’ in new Putin humiliation

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 4, 2024

A Russian soldier claimed he was forced to flee his unit after it came under attack from North Koreans in a “friendly-fire” fiasco.

Russia and Ukraine

@AsamiTerajima: RT @AsamiTerajima: Russia ramps up its use of unidentified gas in its latest chemical warfare tactic. Ukraine caught in limbo amid lack o…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 4, 2024

Russia ramps up its use of unidentified gas in its latest chemical warfare tactic.

Ukraine caught in limbo amid lack of equipment to detect and better treat soldiers affected by Russia’s increased use of new, unknown chemical agents.https://t.co/JEv6DTmIPA

— Asami Terajima (@AsamiTerajima) November 4, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

Russia hits grim troop loss milestone

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 4, 2024

“Perfect numbers like perfect men are very rare,” wrote Ukraine’s military about 700,000 casualties being surpassed.

Russia and Ukraine

@GlasnostGone: Due to historic ongoing Western cowardice, Ukraine suffered another large air attack. Overnight #Ukraine downed 50 of 80 russia’s Shahed kamikaze drones – another 27 were lost on radar, suggesting they’ve crashed due to electronic warfare defence systems. 1 ballistic missiles &… pic.twitter.com/wtNIEkfX1U

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 4, 2024

Due to historic ongoing Western cowardice, Ukraine suffered another large air attack. Overnight #Ukraine downed 50 of 80 russia’s Shahed kamikaze drones – another 27 were lost on radar, suggesting they’ve crashed due to electronic warfare defence systems. 1 ballistic missiles &… pic.twitter.com/wtNIEkfX1U

— Glasnost Gone (@GlasnostGone) November 4, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

South Korea and EU condemn North Korea’s reported troop dispatch to Russia

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 4, 2024

Top South Korean and European Union officials have strongly condemned North Korea’s reported troop dispatch to Russia.

Conversations with the Gemini

Podcast by Gemini, Google AI, Michael Novakhov

Russia-NATO Confrontation Risks and Predictions
https://share.gemini.google/FWAMNxrH8C1o
Created with 3.1 Pro August 27, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Published August 27, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Russia – NATO confrontation: assessments of risk, analysis of the geopolitical motivations, predictions

You are looking for an assessment of the risks, geopolitical motivations, and future predictions surrounding the confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Here is a breakdown of how think tanks and experts evaluate the evolving Russia-NATO confrontation as of mid-2026.

Geopolitical Motivations
Russia’s actions are driven by deep-seated geopolitical and domestic objectives, largely centered on reshaping the European security architecture.

Fracturing the Alliance: According to analysis by the Belfer Center, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance and undermine confidence in its collective defense commitment (Article 5).
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Preventing Political/Economic Expansion: Russia perceives itself as locked in a long-term, existential struggle with NATO, seeking to counter Western political and economic expansion into what it considers its sphere of influence.
CSIS

Exploiting Transatlantic Strains: Moscow actively seeks to capitalize on perceived weaknesses or divisions within the alliance, particularly regarding the scale and reliability of U.S. support under shifting political dynamics in Washington.
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Risk Assessments and Current State of Confrontation
The risk of a full-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia remains low but catastrophic, while the immediate and growing danger lies in a “gray zone” or “shadow war” campaign.

The Escalating Shadow War
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Eurasia Group note that as the conventional war in Ukraine continues (or even if it pauses), the conflict with NATO is shifting toward hybrid warfare.
Eurasia Group

CSIS data highlights that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, continuing to rise. This escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion aims to impose costs on NATO for its support of Ukraine without triggering a conventional military response.
CSIS

Key Tactics Include:

Infrastructure Sabotage: Arson, explosives, and physical attacks targeting transportation, military bases, warehouses, and critical infrastructure.
CSIS

Electronic Warfare and Cyberattacks: Increasing use of electronic attacks and probes of airspace.
Eurasia Group

Disinformation and Subversion: Funding far-right extremist groups, election interference, and massive disinformation campaigns designed to exploit domestic societal divisions.
Eurasia Group

The Conventional Posture
While NATO seeks to avoid direct military confrontation, both sides are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

NATO Preparations: The alliance has stepped up military deterrence, conducting operations like Eastern Sentry, Baltic Sentry, and Arctic Sentry to protect strategic airspace and underwater infrastructure. However, analysts note significant capability gaps remain in air defense and long-range strikes.
russiancouncil.ru
+ 1

Russian Reconstitution: According to CSIS, Russia is adapting to a wartime economy, rapidly scaling the production of weapons proven in Ukraine, which creates an asymmetric threat to NATO’s defense industrial base.
CSIS

Predictions for 2026 and Beyond
Looking forward, analysts predict a period of intense instability and potential limited escalation.

A Limited Military Incursion: A key scenario explored by the Belfer Center suggests that within the next few years, Russia’s gray-zone campaign could culminate in a limited, fast-moving incursion into a NATO border state (such as the Baltics). Using unmarked proxies or unmanned systems, Moscow
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