The Russian World - russianworld.net - The News And Times

Day: December 28, 2024

Aktau Crash – News Review https://t.co/FjrT77RMBD 1 hrs ago📷Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashes in Kazakhstan ‘Russian air defence system’ downed Azerbaijan Airlines plane in deadly crash – Reuters – Sky News ‘Russian air defence system’ downed Azerbaijan Airlines plane in deadly crash – Reuters Sky News 1 hrs ago📷Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashes in Kazakhstan A plane crash in Kazakhstan, another impeachment in South Korea and a protest against an EU law – the world this week – The Indian Express A plane crash in Kazakhstan, another impeachment in South Korea and a protest against an EU law – the world this week The Indian Express 1 hrs ago📷Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashes in Kazakhstan W

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 28, 2024

Aktau Crash – News Review https://t.co/mU61p3XmgX
1 hrs ago📷Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashes in Kazakhstan
‘Russian air defence system’ downed Azerbaijan Airlines plane in deadly crash – Reuters – Sky News
‘Russian air defence system’ downed Azerbaijan Airlines plane in deadly… pic.twitter.com/CpnlpV8NeT

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) December 28, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

Moscow may be behind Azerbaijan plane crash, US says

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 28, 2024

White House cites “early indications” of possible Russian involvement in the crash on Christmas Day.

Syrian Civil War

As Iraqi militias turn their eyes from Israel, they continue pledging allegiance to Tehran – The Jerusalem Post

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 28, 2024

As Iraqi militias turn their eyes from Israel, they continue pledging allegiance to Tehran The Jerusalem Post

Syrian Civil War

As Iraqi militias turn their eyes from Israel, they continue pledging allegiance to Tehran – The Jerusalem Post

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 28, 2024

As Iraqi militias turn their eyes from Israel, they continue pledging allegiance to Tehran The Jerusalem Post

Trump and Russia

Musk calls some Trump supporters ‘contemptible fools,’ escalating tension with MAGA hardliners

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 28, 2024

CNN’s Katilan Collins, Jamal Simmons, Jonah Goldberg and Donie O’Sullivan discuss the escalating tension between Elon Musk and members of a MAGA faction that…

Russia and Ukraine

トム・ハンクスの傑作映画ベスト15│エスクァイア日本版 – Esquire

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 28, 2024

トム・ハンクスの映画史に残る軌跡を、厳選した15本の名作とともに振り返る。

Trump and Russia

LIVE: Elon Musk Stirs H1B Visa Controversy, Clashes With Trump Supporters Over Immigration Reform

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 28, 2024

LIVE: Elon Musk Stirs H1B Visa Controversy, Clashes With Trump Supporters Over Immigration ReformElon Musk sparked a new debate over immigration policy by ad…

Weapons for Ukraine

@kenklippenstein I think it’s pretty important to communicate how the value of weapons to Ukraine is calculated. A 30-year old ATACMS due for costly disposable is value at it’s 1990s at new price despite it being cheaper for the US taxpayer to give it away than keep it.

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 28, 2024

I think it’s pretty important to communicate how the value of weapons to Ukraine is calculated.

A 30-year old ATACMS due for costly disposable is value at it’s 1990s at new price despite it being cheaper for the US taxpayer to give it away than keep it.

— dandroid20xx (@dandroid20XX) December 28, 2024

Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter

RT @Xudozhnikipoeti: Александр Маковский . «Портрет императрицы Александры Фёдоровны». 1914 г. Холст, масло. https://t.co/vWsSx8YiwY

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 28, 2024

Александр Маковский . «Портрет императрицы Александры Фёдоровны». 1914 г. Холст, масло. pic.twitter.com/vWsSx8YiwY

— Художники и Поэты (@Xudozhnikipoeti) December 28, 2024

Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter

President Tokayev Orders Thorough, Impartial Investigation of Plane Crash in Aktau – The Astana Times https://t.co/xcjcZA9Mki

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 28, 2024

President Tokayev Orders Thorough, Impartial Investigation of Plane Crash in Aktau – The Astana Times https://t.co/xcjcZA9Mki

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) December 28, 2024

Conversations with the Gemini

Podcast by Gemini, Google AI, Michael Novakhov

Russia-NATO Confrontation Risks and Predictions
https://share.gemini.google/FWAMNxrH8C1o
Created with 3.1 Pro August 27, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Published August 27, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Russia – NATO confrontation: assessments of risk, analysis of the geopolitical motivations, predictions

You are looking for an assessment of the risks, geopolitical motivations, and future predictions surrounding the confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Here is a breakdown of how think tanks and experts evaluate the evolving Russia-NATO confrontation as of mid-2026.

Geopolitical Motivations
Russia’s actions are driven by deep-seated geopolitical and domestic objectives, largely centered on reshaping the European security architecture.

Fracturing the Alliance: According to analysis by the Belfer Center, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance and undermine confidence in its collective defense commitment (Article 5).
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Preventing Political/Economic Expansion: Russia perceives itself as locked in a long-term, existential struggle with NATO, seeking to counter Western political and economic expansion into what it considers its sphere of influence.
CSIS

Exploiting Transatlantic Strains: Moscow actively seeks to capitalize on perceived weaknesses or divisions within the alliance, particularly regarding the scale and reliability of U.S. support under shifting political dynamics in Washington.
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Risk Assessments and Current State of Confrontation
The risk of a full-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia remains low but catastrophic, while the immediate and growing danger lies in a “gray zone” or “shadow war” campaign.

The Escalating Shadow War
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Eurasia Group note that as the conventional war in Ukraine continues (or even if it pauses), the conflict with NATO is shifting toward hybrid warfare.
Eurasia Group

CSIS data highlights that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, continuing to rise. This escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion aims to impose costs on NATO for its support of Ukraine without triggering a conventional military response.
CSIS

Key Tactics Include:

Infrastructure Sabotage: Arson, explosives, and physical attacks targeting transportation, military bases, warehouses, and critical infrastructure.
CSIS

Electronic Warfare and Cyberattacks: Increasing use of electronic attacks and probes of airspace.
Eurasia Group

Disinformation and Subversion: Funding far-right extremist groups, election interference, and massive disinformation campaigns designed to exploit domestic societal divisions.
Eurasia Group

The Conventional Posture
While NATO seeks to avoid direct military confrontation, both sides are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

NATO Preparations: The alliance has stepped up military deterrence, conducting operations like Eastern Sentry, Baltic Sentry, and Arctic Sentry to protect strategic airspace and underwater infrastructure. However, analysts note significant capability gaps remain in air defense and long-range strikes.
russiancouncil.ru
+ 1

Russian Reconstitution: According to CSIS, Russia is adapting to a wartime economy, rapidly scaling the production of weapons proven in Ukraine, which creates an asymmetric threat to NATO’s defense industrial base.
CSIS

Predictions for 2026 and Beyond
Looking forward, analysts predict a period of intense instability and potential limited escalation.

A Limited Military Incursion: A key scenario explored by the Belfer Center suggests that within the next few years, Russia’s gray-zone campaign could culminate in a limited, fast-moving incursion into a NATO border state (such as the Baltics). Using unmarked proxies or unmanned systems, Moscow
…