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Day: May 19, 2024

@mikenov: Shoigu’s visit to Iran and the October 7 Attack on Israel – Tehran, Iran – Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu, has met senior military and security officials in Iran and toured an exhibition of Iranian missiles and drones. Shoigu…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date May 19, 2024

Shoigu’s visit to Iran and the October 7 Attack on Israel – Google Search https://t.co/EUJylBKP95 –
Tehran, Iran – Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu, has met senior military and security officials in Iran and toured an exhibition of Iranian missiles and drones. Shoigu… pic.twitter.com/oX1Dy77bjq

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) May 19, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

Aubaine – Overview, News & Similar companies | ZoomInfo.com

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date May 19, 2024

View Aubaine (www.aubaine.co.uk) location in Greater London, United Kingdom , revenue, industry and description. Find related and similar companies as well as employees by title and much more.

Selected Articles

Presidents of Azerbaijan and Iran met in the presence of delegations

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date May 19, 2024

Ilham Aliyev, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi, President of the …

Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter

@mikenov: Really disturbing news coming in – #iranian president missing in a helicopter crash . Top Iranian officials were also co passenger’s. Unprecedented geopolitical news. – News Review In 100 Tweets thenewsandtimes.blogspot.com/2024/05/really…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date May 19, 2024

Really disturbing news coming in – #iranian president missing in a helicopter crash . Top Iranian officials were also co passenger’s. Unprecedented geopolitical news. – News Review In 100 Tweets https://t.co/r04dF6HL6b pic.twitter.com/kEw23pueQU

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) May 19, 2024

Selected Articles

Meeting between President Ilham Aliyev and President Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi commences at state border between Azerbaijan and Iran [PHOTOS]

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date May 19, 2024

Ilham Aliyev, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and
Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran,
met on May 19 at the state border between the Republic of
Azerbaijan and Islamic Republic of Iran, Azernews
reports.

The heads of state had a conversation held in a sincere
atmosphere.

—

Putin and Putinism

Como funciona o lançamento de um foguete – Brasil Escola

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date May 19, 2024

Você sabe como funciona o lançamento de um foguete? Acesse e entenda o que são os foguetes, como funcionam, qual combustível usam e de onde eles podem ser lançados.

Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter

@sentdefender: RT by @mikenov: Iranian Air Force Helicopters from Tabriz Air Base in Northwestern Iran arrived near where the Crash Site of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s Helicopter was believed to be Located earlier tonight, but were Unable to see any Wreckage through the Fog and were eventually forced to…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date May 19, 2024

Iranian Air Force Helicopters from Tabriz Air Base in Northwestern Iran arrived near where the Crash Site of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s Helicopter was believed to be Located earlier tonight, but were Unable to see any Wreckage through the Fog and were eventually forced to… pic.twitter.com/Lg49RCTbTA

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 19, 2024

Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter

@mikenov: raisi yahoo.com/news/helicopte…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date May 19, 2024

raisi – Google Search https://t.co/3Acp013unC https://t.co/GqwbzZ4Yug

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) May 19, 2024

Selected Articles

Iran president Ebrahim Raisi pictured before helicopter suffered ‘hard landing’

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date May 19, 2024

Helicopter carrying Iran's president Ebrahim Raisi involved in 'hard landing' - state media. Pic: IRNA

Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) / Twitter

@mikenov: Raisi and Ilham Aliyev – news.sky.com/video/iran-pre…

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date May 19, 2024

Raisi and Ilham Aliyev – Google Search https://t.co/aDBArsXPdM – https://t.co/2PFidWtmvd

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) May 19, 2024

Conversations with the Gemini

Podcast by Gemini, Google AI, Michael Novakhov

Russia-NATO Confrontation Risks and Predictions
https://share.gemini.google/FWAMNxrH8C1o
Created with 3.1 Pro August 27, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Published August 27, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Russia – NATO confrontation: assessments of risk, analysis of the geopolitical motivations, predictions

You are looking for an assessment of the risks, geopolitical motivations, and future predictions surrounding the confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Here is a breakdown of how think tanks and experts evaluate the evolving Russia-NATO confrontation as of mid-2026.

Geopolitical Motivations
Russia’s actions are driven by deep-seated geopolitical and domestic objectives, largely centered on reshaping the European security architecture.

Fracturing the Alliance: According to analysis by the Belfer Center, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance and undermine confidence in its collective defense commitment (Article 5).
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Preventing Political/Economic Expansion: Russia perceives itself as locked in a long-term, existential struggle with NATO, seeking to counter Western political and economic expansion into what it considers its sphere of influence.
CSIS

Exploiting Transatlantic Strains: Moscow actively seeks to capitalize on perceived weaknesses or divisions within the alliance, particularly regarding the scale and reliability of U.S. support under shifting political dynamics in Washington.
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Risk Assessments and Current State of Confrontation
The risk of a full-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia remains low but catastrophic, while the immediate and growing danger lies in a “gray zone” or “shadow war” campaign.

The Escalating Shadow War
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Eurasia Group note that as the conventional war in Ukraine continues (or even if it pauses), the conflict with NATO is shifting toward hybrid warfare.
Eurasia Group

CSIS data highlights that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, continuing to rise. This escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion aims to impose costs on NATO for its support of Ukraine without triggering a conventional military response.
CSIS

Key Tactics Include:

Infrastructure Sabotage: Arson, explosives, and physical attacks targeting transportation, military bases, warehouses, and critical infrastructure.
CSIS

Electronic Warfare and Cyberattacks: Increasing use of electronic attacks and probes of airspace.
Eurasia Group

Disinformation and Subversion: Funding far-right extremist groups, election interference, and massive disinformation campaigns designed to exploit domestic societal divisions.
Eurasia Group

The Conventional Posture
While NATO seeks to avoid direct military confrontation, both sides are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

NATO Preparations: The alliance has stepped up military deterrence, conducting operations like Eastern Sentry, Baltic Sentry, and Arctic Sentry to protect strategic airspace and underwater infrastructure. However, analysts note significant capability gaps remain in air defense and long-range strikes.
russiancouncil.ru
+ 1

Russian Reconstitution: According to CSIS, Russia is adapting to a wartime economy, rapidly scaling the production of weapons proven in Ukraine, which creates an asymmetric threat to NATO’s defense industrial base.
CSIS

Predictions for 2026 and Beyond
Looking forward, analysts predict a period of intense instability and potential limited escalation.

A Limited Military Incursion: A key scenario explored by the Belfer Center suggests that within the next few years, Russia’s gray-zone campaign could culminate in a limited, fast-moving incursion into a NATO border state (such as the Baltics). Using unmarked proxies or unmanned systems, Moscow
…