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Day: June 13, 2024

Айн, цвай, «Рамштайн»: Пентагон подтвердил приоритет в оружейной накачке ВСУ

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

Следующее заседание «контактной группы по обороне Украины» (формат «Рамштайн»), которое состоится сегодня, 13 июня, в Брюсселе, будет посвящено «укреплению потенциала противовоздушной обороны Украины для защиты от российских воздушных атак».

Russia - Ukraine war

Russia smashes train tracks in a battered Ukrainian border region where children are being evacuated – The Associated Press

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

Russia smashes train tracks in a battered Ukrainian border region where children are being evacuated The Associated Press

Russia News

War expert: Ukraine finally hitting Russia with its ‘wonder-weapons’ – Business Insider

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

War expert: Ukraine finally hitting Russia with its ‘wonder-weapons’ Business Insider

Russia News

G7 leaders agree to lend Ukraine billions backed by Russia’s frozen assets. Here’s how it will work – Yahoo! Voices

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

G7 leaders agree to lend Ukraine billions backed by Russia’s frozen assets. Here’s how it will work Yahoo! Voices

Russia News

Biden leads new drive to cement the West’s Ukraine war effort against Putin – and Trump – CNN

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

Biden leads new drive to cement the West’s Ukraine war effort against Putin – and Trump CNN

Russia - Ukraine war

Biden leads new drive to cement the West’s Ukraine war effort against Putin – and Trump – CNN

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

Biden leads new drive to cement the West’s Ukraine war effort against Putin – and Trump CNN

Russia - Ukraine war

G7 leaders agree to lend Ukraine billions backed by Russia’s frozen assets. Here’s how it will work – wrde.com

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

G7 leaders agree to lend Ukraine billions backed by Russia’s frozen assets. Here’s how it will work wrde.com

Russia - Ukraine war

G7 summit opens with deal to use Russian assets for Ukraine as EU’s traditional powers recalibrate – Yahoo Canada Finance

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

G7 summit opens with deal to use Russian assets for Ukraine as EU’s traditional powers recalibrate Yahoo Canada Finance

Russia - Ukraine war

Rishi Sunak to set out £240m Ukraine aid package as G7 to focus on Russia – Sky News

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

Rishi Sunak to set out £240m Ukraine aid package as G7 to focus on Russia Sky News

Russia - Ukraine war

Ukraine’s big strike on Crimea shows how its older missiles can take out Russia’s most advanced air defenses – Yahoo News Canada

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date June 13, 2024

Ukraine’s big strike on Crimea shows how its older missiles can take out Russia’s most advanced air defenses Yahoo News Canada

Conversations with the Gemini

Podcast by Gemini, Google AI, Michael Novakhov

Russia-NATO Confrontation Risks and Predictions
https://share.gemini.google/FWAMNxrH8C1o
Created with 3.1 Pro August 27, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Published August 27, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Russia – NATO confrontation: assessments of risk, analysis of the geopolitical motivations, predictions

You are looking for an assessment of the risks, geopolitical motivations, and future predictions surrounding the confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Here is a breakdown of how think tanks and experts evaluate the evolving Russia-NATO confrontation as of mid-2026.

Geopolitical Motivations
Russia’s actions are driven by deep-seated geopolitical and domestic objectives, largely centered on reshaping the European security architecture.

Fracturing the Alliance: According to analysis by the Belfer Center, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance and undermine confidence in its collective defense commitment (Article 5).
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Preventing Political/Economic Expansion: Russia perceives itself as locked in a long-term, existential struggle with NATO, seeking to counter Western political and economic expansion into what it considers its sphere of influence.
CSIS

Exploiting Transatlantic Strains: Moscow actively seeks to capitalize on perceived weaknesses or divisions within the alliance, particularly regarding the scale and reliability of U.S. support under shifting political dynamics in Washington.
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Risk Assessments and Current State of Confrontation
The risk of a full-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia remains low but catastrophic, while the immediate and growing danger lies in a “gray zone” or “shadow war” campaign.

The Escalating Shadow War
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Eurasia Group note that as the conventional war in Ukraine continues (or even if it pauses), the conflict with NATO is shifting toward hybrid warfare.
Eurasia Group

CSIS data highlights that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, continuing to rise. This escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion aims to impose costs on NATO for its support of Ukraine without triggering a conventional military response.
CSIS

Key Tactics Include:

Infrastructure Sabotage: Arson, explosives, and physical attacks targeting transportation, military bases, warehouses, and critical infrastructure.
CSIS

Electronic Warfare and Cyberattacks: Increasing use of electronic attacks and probes of airspace.
Eurasia Group

Disinformation and Subversion: Funding far-right extremist groups, election interference, and massive disinformation campaigns designed to exploit domestic societal divisions.
Eurasia Group

The Conventional Posture
While NATO seeks to avoid direct military confrontation, both sides are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

NATO Preparations: The alliance has stepped up military deterrence, conducting operations like Eastern Sentry, Baltic Sentry, and Arctic Sentry to protect strategic airspace and underwater infrastructure. However, analysts note significant capability gaps remain in air defense and long-range strikes.
russiancouncil.ru
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Russian Reconstitution: According to CSIS, Russia is adapting to a wartime economy, rapidly scaling the production of weapons proven in Ukraine, which creates an asymmetric threat to NATO’s defense industrial base.
CSIS

Predictions for 2026 and Beyond
Looking forward, analysts predict a period of intense instability and potential limited escalation.

A Limited Military Incursion: A key scenario explored by the Belfer Center suggests that within the next few years, Russia’s gray-zone campaign could culminate in a limited, fast-moving incursion into a NATO border state (such as the Baltics). Using unmarked proxies or unmanned systems, Moscow
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