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Day: October 9, 2024

Russia gains ground in Ukraine, but at steep cost – POLITICO

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 9, 2024

10/09/2024 06:30 PM EDT. Russia has made slow but steady gains in recent weeks against Ukraine but at a steep cost — the bloodiest month in the nearly three-year war, U.S. officials said …

Russia and Ukraine

Russia gains ground in Ukraine, but at steep cost – POLITICO

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 9, 2024

Russia gains ground in Ukraine, but at steep cost POLITICO

Russia and Ukraine

@visegrad24: Spain’s Member of the European Parliament @hermanntertsch in the EP today… He stated UNIFIL has done nothing to stop Hezbollah & that Europe mustn’t interfere with Israel’s operations against terrorists. He also said Europe must learn from what happened to Lebanon’s Christians

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 9, 2024

Spain’s Member of the European Parliament @hermanntertsch in the EP today…

He stated UNIFIL has done nothing to stop Hezbollah & that Europe mustn’t interfere with Israel’s operations against terrorists.

He also said Europe must learn from what happened to Lebanon’s Christians pic.twitter.com/2mErfZErQX

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 9, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

@visegrad24: Netanyahu: “There’s only one power in the world fighting Iran, which is Israel, but this isn’t just our war, but the war of the free world”

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 9, 2024

Netanyahu:

“There’s only one power in the world fighting Iran, which is Israel, but this isn’t just our war, but the war of the free world” pic.twitter.com/L3yF2eghWX

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 9, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

@DrEliDavid: RT by @visegrad24: “UN Security Council resolution 1559 states Hezbollah must be disarmed. Resolution 1701 states it cannot be present in southern Lebanon. UN and Lebanon ignore these resolutions. So Israel has no choice but to invade Lebanon to enforce them.” From my interview with @visegrad24

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 9, 2024

“UN Security Council resolution 1559 states Hezbollah must be disarmed. Resolution 1701 states it cannot be present in southern Lebanon. UN and Lebanon ignore these resolutions. So Israel has no choice but to invade Lebanon to enforce them.”

From my interview with @visegrad24 pic.twitter.com/ntceD0QCDE

— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) October 9, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

@visegrad24: BREAKING: Qatar wins UN vote to be included in the UN Human Rights Council. They received 88% of the votes in the General Assembly.

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 9, 2024

BREAKING:

Qatar wins UN vote to be included in the UN Human Rights Council.

They received 88% of the votes in the General Assembly. pic.twitter.com/WrtdSlHPOV

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 9, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

@visegrad24: Eitan is not a boy. He is a strong young man

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 9, 2024

Eitan is not a boy. He is a strong young man https://t.co/4zaPoYJQlv

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 9, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

@visegrad24: Hurricane Milton will make landfall in around 2 hours near Sarasota

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 9, 2024

Hurricane Milton will make landfall in around 2 hours near Sarasota pic.twitter.com/guOWEGoZME

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 9, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

@visegrad24: Russian and Chinese Navy ships have started practicing anti-submarine missions as part of joint patrols in the Asia-Pacific region. The two states have strengthened their military ties since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 9, 2024

Russian and Chinese Navy ships have started practicing anti-submarine missions as part of joint patrols in the Asia-Pacific region.

The two states have strengthened their military ties since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/hOfmipHQ0p

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 9, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

@visegrad24: BREAKING: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has launched a suicide drone against Eilat in southern Israel. The first ever Israeli airstrikes against Shia militias in Iraq under the control of the Islamic Regime in Iran are just a matter of time Via @OALD24

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date October 9, 2024

BREAKING:

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has launched a suicide drone against Eilat in southern Israel.

The first ever Israeli airstrikes against Shia militias in Iraq under the control of the Islamic Regime in Iran are just a matter of time

Via @OALD24 pic.twitter.com/HkZg6SN1JR

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 9, 2024

Conversations with the Gemini

Podcast by Gemini, Google AI, Michael Novakhov

Russia-NATO Confrontation Risks and Predictions
https://share.gemini.google/FWAMNxrH8C1o
Created with 3.1 Pro August 27, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Published August 27, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Russia – NATO confrontation: assessments of risk, analysis of the geopolitical motivations, predictions

You are looking for an assessment of the risks, geopolitical motivations, and future predictions surrounding the confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Here is a breakdown of how think tanks and experts evaluate the evolving Russia-NATO confrontation as of mid-2026.

Geopolitical Motivations
Russia’s actions are driven by deep-seated geopolitical and domestic objectives, largely centered on reshaping the European security architecture.

Fracturing the Alliance: According to analysis by the Belfer Center, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance and undermine confidence in its collective defense commitment (Article 5).
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Preventing Political/Economic Expansion: Russia perceives itself as locked in a long-term, existential struggle with NATO, seeking to counter Western political and economic expansion into what it considers its sphere of influence.
CSIS

Exploiting Transatlantic Strains: Moscow actively seeks to capitalize on perceived weaknesses or divisions within the alliance, particularly regarding the scale and reliability of U.S. support under shifting political dynamics in Washington.
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Risk Assessments and Current State of Confrontation
The risk of a full-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia remains low but catastrophic, while the immediate and growing danger lies in a “gray zone” or “shadow war” campaign.

The Escalating Shadow War
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Eurasia Group note that as the conventional war in Ukraine continues (or even if it pauses), the conflict with NATO is shifting toward hybrid warfare.
Eurasia Group

CSIS data highlights that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, continuing to rise. This escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion aims to impose costs on NATO for its support of Ukraine without triggering a conventional military response.
CSIS

Key Tactics Include:

Infrastructure Sabotage: Arson, explosives, and physical attacks targeting transportation, military bases, warehouses, and critical infrastructure.
CSIS

Electronic Warfare and Cyberattacks: Increasing use of electronic attacks and probes of airspace.
Eurasia Group

Disinformation and Subversion: Funding far-right extremist groups, election interference, and massive disinformation campaigns designed to exploit domestic societal divisions.
Eurasia Group

The Conventional Posture
While NATO seeks to avoid direct military confrontation, both sides are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

NATO Preparations: The alliance has stepped up military deterrence, conducting operations like Eastern Sentry, Baltic Sentry, and Arctic Sentry to protect strategic airspace and underwater infrastructure. However, analysts note significant capability gaps remain in air defense and long-range strikes.
russiancouncil.ru
+ 1

Russian Reconstitution: According to CSIS, Russia is adapting to a wartime economy, rapidly scaling the production of weapons proven in Ukraine, which creates an asymmetric threat to NATO’s defense industrial base.
CSIS

Predictions for 2026 and Beyond
Looking forward, analysts predict a period of intense instability and potential limited escalation.

A Limited Military Incursion: A key scenario explored by the Belfer Center suggests that within the next few years, Russia’s gray-zone campaign could culminate in a limited, fast-moving incursion into a NATO border state (such as the Baltics). Using unmarked proxies or unmanned systems, Moscow
…