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Day: December 10, 2024

@KyivIndependent: ⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least three civilians and injured at least 14 over the past day, regional authorities reported on the morning of Dec. 10. https://t.co/d9QFm9n37w

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 10, 2024

⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least three civilians and injured at least 14 over the past day, regional authorities reported on the morning of Dec. 10.https://t.co/d9QFm9n37w

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) December 10, 2024

Weapons for Ukraine

BrorHawke: #Ukraine won’t trade soldiers’ lives for better weapons.”

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 10, 2024

#Ukraine won’t trade soldiers’ lives for better weapons.” https://t.co/zFoWag0bWL

— Bror Hawke (@BrorHawke) December 10, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

BrorHawke: #Ukraine won’t trade soldiers’ lives for better weapons.”

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 10, 2024

#Ukraine won’t trade soldiers’ lives for better weapons.” https://t.co/zFoWag0bWL

— Bror Hawke (@BrorHawke) December 10, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

@GlasnostGone: Medieval russia attacking Ukraine with ballistic missiles this morning – designed to inflict maximum injury to civilians during rush-hour. https://t.co/qfgh4cNveg https://t.co/ga3gxhivyS

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 10, 2024

Medieval russia attacking Ukraine with ballistic missiles this morning – designed to inflict maximum injury to civilians during rush-hour. https://t.co/qfgh4cNveg pic.twitter.com/ga3gxhivyS

— Glasnost Gone (@GlasnostGone) December 10, 2024

Weapons for Ukraine

Euan_MacDonald: US gave permission for Western weapons to be used on targets in Russia in late October. They were soon used, and almost immediately there was a sudden drop in Russia’s use of KAB glide/guided bombs, which have been devastating military and civilian targets in Ukraine for months. https://t.co/bhYKKvdRqe

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 10, 2024

US gave permission for Western weapons to be used on targets in Russia in late October. They were soon used, and almost immediately there was a sudden drop in Russia’s use of KAB glide/guided bombs, which have been devastating military and civilian targets in Ukraine for months. pic.twitter.com/bhYKKvdRqe

— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) December 10, 2024

Weapons for Ukraine

atk_1881: Why don’t you say that the damage Israel inflicted on Hezbollah and Iran with US weapons and constant support and Biden’s supply of arms for Ukraine made it impossible even undesirable for you to save Assad?

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 10, 2024

Why don’t you say that the damage Israel inflicted on Hezbollah and Iran with US weapons and constant support and Biden’s supply of arms for Ukraine made it impossible even undesirable for you to save Assad? https://t.co/TPIEZf2hlR

— Fuat 🇹🇷 (@atk_1881) December 10, 2024

Weapons for Ukraine

Ticasoart: @ViGay_nft @FlyingBeagle_ Ukraine has forgotten its historical mistake When he trusted the West and disarmed himself Now he must always ask the West to send him weapons from the taxes of American and European citizens. It is like someone breaking his sword and asking others for swords.

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 10, 2024

Ukraine has forgotten its historical mistake
When he trusted the West and disarmed himself
Now he must always ask the West to send him weapons from the taxes of American and European citizens.
It is like someone breaking his sword and asking others for swords.

— TicaSo (@Ticasoart) December 10, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

@USApoRusski: .@StateDeptSpox: США вводят новые санкции и визовые ограничения в отношении лиц, связанных с коррупцией и нарушениями прав человека. Мы по-прежнему стремимся привлечь к ответственности тех, кто нарушает права человека.

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 10, 2024

.@StateDeptSpox: США вводят новые санкции и визовые ограничения в отношении лиц, связанных с коррупцией и нарушениями прав человека. Мы по-прежнему стремимся привлечь к ответственности тех, кто нарушает права человека.

— США по-русски (@USApoRusski) December 10, 2024

Russia and Ukraine

@GlasnostGone: Today Ukraine attacked a military airfield in Russia’s Saratov region with drones – around 600km away. Orc governor wouldn’t say which airfield, but it’s likely to be the Engels long-range aviation base, near regional capital Saratov – which Ukraine’s struck before.… pic.twitter.com/lPt2MQtMws

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 10, 2024

Today Ukraine attacked a military airfield in Russia’s Saratov region with drones – around 600km away. Orc governor wouldn’t say which airfield, but it’s likely to be the Engels long-range aviation base, near regional capital Saratov – which Ukraine’s struck before.… pic.twitter.com/lPt2MQtMws

— Glasnost Gone (@GlasnostGone) December 10, 2024

Weapons for Ukraine

IPietro_RiccioI: @ukraine_map @wartranslated Israel wasn’t gifted anything. They caused the fall of Assad and withdrawal of Russia by beating Hezbollah. And yes this work is for peace. The weapons would either end up in Iran, in Russia, or in the hands of the new regime that has everything to prove.

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 10, 2024

Israel wasn’t gifted anything.
They caused the fall of Assad and withdrawal of Russia by beating Hezbollah.

And yes this work is for peace.
The weapons would either end up in Iran, in Russia, or in the hands of the new regime that has everything to prove.

— Pietro Riccio (@IPietro_RiccioI) December 10, 2024

Conversations with the Gemini

Podcast by Gemini, Google AI, Michael Novakhov

Russia-NATO Confrontation Risks and Predictions
https://share.gemini.google/FWAMNxrH8C1o
Created with 3.1 Pro August 27, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Published August 27, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Russia – NATO confrontation: assessments of risk, analysis of the geopolitical motivations, predictions

You are looking for an assessment of the risks, geopolitical motivations, and future predictions surrounding the confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Here is a breakdown of how think tanks and experts evaluate the evolving Russia-NATO confrontation as of mid-2026.

Geopolitical Motivations
Russia’s actions are driven by deep-seated geopolitical and domestic objectives, largely centered on reshaping the European security architecture.

Fracturing the Alliance: According to analysis by the Belfer Center, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance and undermine confidence in its collective defense commitment (Article 5).
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Preventing Political/Economic Expansion: Russia perceives itself as locked in a long-term, existential struggle with NATO, seeking to counter Western political and economic expansion into what it considers its sphere of influence.
CSIS

Exploiting Transatlantic Strains: Moscow actively seeks to capitalize on perceived weaknesses or divisions within the alliance, particularly regarding the scale and reliability of U.S. support under shifting political dynamics in Washington.
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Risk Assessments and Current State of Confrontation
The risk of a full-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia remains low but catastrophic, while the immediate and growing danger lies in a “gray zone” or “shadow war” campaign.

The Escalating Shadow War
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Eurasia Group note that as the conventional war in Ukraine continues (or even if it pauses), the conflict with NATO is shifting toward hybrid warfare.
Eurasia Group

CSIS data highlights that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, continuing to rise. This escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion aims to impose costs on NATO for its support of Ukraine without triggering a conventional military response.
CSIS

Key Tactics Include:

Infrastructure Sabotage: Arson, explosives, and physical attacks targeting transportation, military bases, warehouses, and critical infrastructure.
CSIS

Electronic Warfare and Cyberattacks: Increasing use of electronic attacks and probes of airspace.
Eurasia Group

Disinformation and Subversion: Funding far-right extremist groups, election interference, and massive disinformation campaigns designed to exploit domestic societal divisions.
Eurasia Group

The Conventional Posture
While NATO seeks to avoid direct military confrontation, both sides are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

NATO Preparations: The alliance has stepped up military deterrence, conducting operations like Eastern Sentry, Baltic Sentry, and Arctic Sentry to protect strategic airspace and underwater infrastructure. However, analysts note significant capability gaps remain in air defense and long-range strikes.
russiancouncil.ru
+ 1

Russian Reconstitution: According to CSIS, Russia is adapting to a wartime economy, rapidly scaling the production of weapons proven in Ukraine, which creates an asymmetric threat to NATO’s defense industrial base.
CSIS

Predictions for 2026 and Beyond
Looking forward, analysts predict a period of intense instability and potential limited escalation.

A Limited Military Incursion: A key scenario explored by the Belfer Center suggests that within the next few years, Russia’s gray-zone campaign could culminate in a limited, fast-moving incursion into a NATO border state (such as the Baltics). Using unmarked proxies or unmanned systems, Moscow
…