The Russian World - russianworld.net - The News And Times

Day: December 22, 2024

Politicians accounts not run by the politicians himself/herself need to be marked as “manage by interns” or “managed by assistants”.

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 22, 2024

Politicians accounts not run by the politicians himself/herself need to be marked as “manage by interns” or “managed by assistants”.

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) December 22, 2024

Syrian Civil War

Syrian Kurdish groups on the back foot as power balance shifts – Deccan Herald

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 22, 2024

Syrian Kurdish groups on the back foot as power balance shifts Deccan Herald

Trump and Russia

US airstrikes against targets linked to Houthi rebels | Who is German market attack suspect?

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 22, 2024

The United States military says it has conducted air strikes against targets linked to the Houthi rebels in Yemen’s capital Sanaa.It follows a similar US ope…

Trump and Russia

Kim Jong Un’s 2nd Big Move With Putin Shocks Zelensky As Russia Closes In On Biggest Win

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 22, 2024

North Korea plans to deploy additional troops to Ukraine, as experts warn of a deepening military alliance with Russia. Currently, around 11,000 North Korean…

Russia and Ukraine

General Staff: Russia has lost 774,100 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24, 2022

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 22, 2024

This number includes 1,820 casualties Russian forces suffered just over the past day, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on Dec. 22.

Trump and Russia

Why Moscow bomb killing struck fear into Putin’s generals

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 22, 2024

Philip Ingram answers members’ questions on the bomb killing of Russia’s General Kirilov and other events around the war in UkraineTo get your questions or c…

Russia and Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,032 – Al Jazeera

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 22, 2024

Eight Ukrainian drones hit residential buildings in the Russian city of Kazan, more than 1,000km (600 miles) from the front line, bringing the war deep into the heart of Russia. Local authorities …

Syrian Civil War

Iran’s strategy unravels: Assad fall and collapse of Tehran’s regional bloc – Al-Monitor

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 22, 2024

Iran’s strategy unravels: Assad fall and collapse of Tehran’s regional bloc Al-Monitor

Trump and Russia

‘No Russian Gas From Jan 1’ Order Slips Europe Into Panic Mode Amid Winter Chills

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 22, 2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine will terminate Russian gas transit to Europe starting January 1, 2025, following the expiration…

Weapons for Ukraine

USAI Contracts for Ukraine: Weapons Contracted and Fund Use by October 2024 https://t.co/jnnpqbBv0c

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date December 22, 2024

USAI Contracts for Ukraine: Weapons Contracted and Fund Use by October 2024https://t.co/jnnpqbBv0c

— Egalitmus🌱 🇸🇪 🇮🇱 🇺🇦 (@bookfacet) December 22, 2024

Conversations with the Gemini

Podcast by Gemini, Google AI, Michael Novakhov

Russia-NATO Confrontation Risks and Predictions
https://share.gemini.google/FWAMNxrH8C1o
Created with 3.1 Pro August 27, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Published August 27, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Russia – NATO confrontation: assessments of risk, analysis of the geopolitical motivations, predictions

You are looking for an assessment of the risks, geopolitical motivations, and future predictions surrounding the confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Here is a breakdown of how think tanks and experts evaluate the evolving Russia-NATO confrontation as of mid-2026.

Geopolitical Motivations
Russia’s actions are driven by deep-seated geopolitical and domestic objectives, largely centered on reshaping the European security architecture.

Fracturing the Alliance: According to analysis by the Belfer Center, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s core strategic objective is to fracture the NATO alliance and undermine confidence in its collective defense commitment (Article 5).
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Preventing Political/Economic Expansion: Russia perceives itself as locked in a long-term, existential struggle with NATO, seeking to counter Western political and economic expansion into what it considers its sphere of influence.
CSIS

Exploiting Transatlantic Strains: Moscow actively seeks to capitalize on perceived weaknesses or divisions within the alliance, particularly regarding the scale and reliability of U.S. support under shifting political dynamics in Washington.
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Risk Assessments and Current State of Confrontation
The risk of a full-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia remains low but catastrophic, while the immediate and growing danger lies in a “gray zone” or “shadow war” campaign.

The Escalating Shadow War
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Eurasia Group note that as the conventional war in Ukraine continues (or even if it pauses), the conflict with NATO is shifting toward hybrid warfare.
Eurasia Group

CSIS data highlights that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, continuing to rise. This escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion aims to impose costs on NATO for its support of Ukraine without triggering a conventional military response.
CSIS

Key Tactics Include:

Infrastructure Sabotage: Arson, explosives, and physical attacks targeting transportation, military bases, warehouses, and critical infrastructure.
CSIS

Electronic Warfare and Cyberattacks: Increasing use of electronic attacks and probes of airspace.
Eurasia Group

Disinformation and Subversion: Funding far-right extremist groups, election interference, and massive disinformation campaigns designed to exploit domestic societal divisions.
Eurasia Group

The Conventional Posture
While NATO seeks to avoid direct military confrontation, both sides are preparing for the worst-case scenario.

NATO Preparations: The alliance has stepped up military deterrence, conducting operations like Eastern Sentry, Baltic Sentry, and Arctic Sentry to protect strategic airspace and underwater infrastructure. However, analysts note significant capability gaps remain in air defense and long-range strikes.
russiancouncil.ru
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Russian Reconstitution: According to CSIS, Russia is adapting to a wartime economy, rapidly scaling the production of weapons proven in Ukraine, which creates an asymmetric threat to NATO’s defense industrial base.
CSIS

Predictions for 2026 and Beyond
Looking forward, analysts predict a period of intense instability and potential limited escalation.

A Limited Military Incursion: A key scenario explored by the Belfer Center suggests that within the next few years, Russia’s gray-zone campaign could culminate in a limited, fast-moving incursion into a NATO border state (such as the Baltics). Using unmarked proxies or unmanned systems, Moscow
…