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En el cuadro geopolítico global, hay regiones que, aunque geográficamente pequeñas, tienen una notable influencia en las relaciones internacionales. Osetia del Sur y Abjasia, dos entidades territoriales separatistas situadas en la región del Cáucaso en Georgia, son un vivo ejemplo de este fenómeno. Ambas regiones han estado en el centro de conflictos intensificados caracterizados por tensiones étnicas, desafíos territoriales y disputas geopolíticas.

CÁUCASO SUR, UNA REGIÓN HISTÓRICAMENTE CONVULSA

Si vamos a un mapa del mundo, vemos una región bastante turbulenta, situada en el Cáucaso, allí vemos que hay dos territorios, Osetia del Sur y Abjasia. Partiendo desde el inicio de estos problemas en ambos territorios, nos encontramos con la URSS. No es algo sorprendente. La historia de las tensiones entre estas dos regiones se remonta a la Edad Media, cuando ambos territorios formaban parte del reino georgiano.

En el siglo XIX, Osetia del Sur y Abjasia se convirtieron en territorios autónomos dentro de Georgia Imperial. La identidad étnica y cultural de estas regiones también se fue configurando de manera independiente por lo que hubo una creciente tensión étnica y política que hizo que se creara un conflicto abierto en 1918, cuando ambas regiones se declararon independientes. Georgia, por su parte, rechazó esta declaración y, en 1921, las fuerzas georgianas lanzaron una última campaña militar para someter al pueblo de Osetia del Sur y Abjasia.

Mapa de la guerra de Georgia en 2008 cuando tropas rusas entraron en territorio de Georgia en Abjazia y Osetia.

A principios del siglo XX, la región estaba inmersa en el contexto geopolítico del Imperio Ruso. Ambas regiones, tanto Osetia del Sur como Abjasia, eran parte de la periferia sur del imperio y compartían fronteras con el Imperio Otomano al sur y el Imperio Persa al sureste. En 1920, tras la Revolución Rusa y la creación de manera formal de la URSS, la región del Cáucaso fue escenario de cambios significativos, sobre todo en la zona sur. Un año más tarde, la RepúblicaDemocrática de Georgia fue ocupada por el Ejercito Rojo, y se estableció la Republica Socialista Soviética de Georgia. Esto solo buscaba consolidar el control centralizado y homogeneizar las identidades dentro de la URSS.

En 1930, Josef Stalin, nacido en Georgia, comenzó a desempeñar un papel crucial en la reconfiguración de las fronteras internas de la Unión Soviética. Se crearon repúblicas autónomas, como las de Osetia del Sur y Abjasia, que, bajo un marco soviético buscaba conciliar la diversidad étnica que existía en ambas regiones y ofrecerles un mínimo nivel de autogobierno, a pesar de que estaban subordinadas a Moscú.

Con la desintegración de la URSS llegaron los problemas

Tras la desintegración de la URSS en 1991, tanto Osetia del Sur como Abjasia se encontraron en una de las situaciones mas complejas de su corta vida. Las tensiones que habían estado latentes durante el periodo soviético se intensificaron, y ambos territorios declararon su independencia de Georgia. Este proceso llevó a grandes conflictos armados y a la creación de partidos políticos que abogaban por el separatismo de estas regiones.

En el caso de Abjasia, el conflicto más intenso tuvo lugar de 1992 a 1993, las fuerzas de abjasia, con el apoyo de voluntarios y tropas rusas, se enfrentaron a las fuerzas georgianas. El resultado del conflicto fue la independencia defacto de Abjasia en 1993, aunque, para la desgracia de todos los habitantes de la zona que apoyaban esto, la comunidad internacional, en su mayoría, no reconocieron su independencia. A pesar de ello, Rusia mantuvo su presencia militar en la región y, posteriormente, les otorgó la ciudadanía rusa a muchos abjasios.

Abjasia celebra el 30.º aniversario de su independencia de Georgia. Fuente: Agencia EFE

En el otro caso, el de Osetia del Sur, el conflicto armado más significativo fue en los mismos años que, tras una breve tregua, los enfrentamientos se reavivaron en 2008. El conflicto entre Georgia y Rusia, conocido como la Guerra Ruso-Georgiana, tuvo un grandísimo impacto en Osetia del Sur, recordemos que esta región esta altamente vinculada con Rusia. Después de estos enfrentamientos, Rusia reconoció también la independencia de Osetia del Sur, lo que genero aún mas rencillas entre Rusia y sus vecinos. En la actualidad, los países que reconocen a estas dos regiones son, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Nauru y Siria, aparte de Rusia.

Desde el momento del “fin” de la guerra entre Rusia y Georgia, el país liderado por Putin ha reafirmado su posición. Las relaciones comerciales que mantienen los ahora Estados de facto con Rusia son prácticamente exclusivas. Según un informe de Routledge, llamado “East European Politics” la economía de Osetia del Sur está basada en las importaciones e inversiones rusas, pero, por otro lado, sus importaciones no van más allá de productos agrícolas de una calidad muy inferior a la que el país ruso puede acceder. Abjasia, por su parte, sí se beneficia de una mayor inversión en infraestructura de varios países extranjeros entre los que se incluyen, por ejemplo, a Turquía.

Regiones separatistas ocupadas por Rusia en Georgia. (Instituto de Relaciones Internacionales)

Algo muy característico es que en ambas regiones se usa el rublo ruso, la cooperación también se extiende al plano militar, que es el que más le interesa a Rusia, se firmaron acuerdos militares con ambas regiones en 2014 y 2015generando un gran descontento en los países occidentales viendo el poder que tenía en la zona. Estos acuerdos vienen precedidos de la anexión rusa de Crimea en marzo de 2014.

¿Qué está pasando en la actualidad en la zona?

En la actualidad y con las recientes contiendas abiertas por parte de Rusia, varios medios se han hecho eco de los planes que pudieran tener en estas dos regiones. “La idea de unirse a Rusia sigue siendo popular en Abjasia y Osetia del Sur […] Es muy posible que se lleve a cabo si hay buenas razones para ello”, estas fueron las palabras que recogía el periódico ruso, Argumenty i Fakti, de un discurso que ofreció el actual vicepresidente del Consejo de Seguridad ruso,Dmitri Medvédv. Este plan podría ser altamente beneficioso para Rusia y a su vez letal. Georgia ha mejorado exponencialmente su relación con la Unión Europea. En el año 2014, se firmaron los Acuerdos de Asociación, que incluían un Acuerdo de Libre Comercio Integral y Reforzado. También la Unión Europea ha proporcionado asistencia financiera a Georgia para poder respaldar su desarrollo económico e implementar reformas, han creado un plan de facilidad de movilidad para las personas de diferentes lugares hasta Georgia y, la parte más importante, la Unión Europea también se ha reafirmado con su compromiso con la integridad territorial de Georgia y ha expresado su apoyo a una solución pacifica y negociada para los conflictos en las regiones de Osetia del Sur y Abjasia.

Influencia económica rusa en los países del Cáucaso Sur. (Geopolitical Futures)

Esto podría hacer que si, en un futuro, tal y como afirma Medvédv, Rusia se pone en marcha para conseguir anexionar los dos territorios, a pesar de su sentimiento ruso, la UE saldría en defensa del pueblo georgiano por lo que se abriría una contienda que, por rivales, Rusia no estaría dispuesta a jugar.

NOTA: Los planteamientos e ideas contenidas en los artículos de análisis y opinión son responsabilidad exclusiva, en cada caso, del analista, sin que necesariamente representen las ideas de GEOPOL 21.

Good morning. Joe Biden said Benjamin Netanyahu must change tack, warning that Israel’s “indiscriminate bombing” in Gaza risked leaving the country isolated.

Offering his harshest criticism of the Israeli prime minister’s far-right coalition since Israel began its military offensive in response to Hamas’s October 7 attack, the US president said Israel is “starting to lose . . . support” around the world.

Speaking to donors at a political fundraiser, Biden described Netanyahu’s coalition as “the most conservative government in Israel’s history . . . [that] doesn’t want a two-state solution”, adding: “I think he has to change, and with this government, this government in Israel is making it very difficult for him to move.”

Biden until now had largely resisted publicly pressuring Netanyahu even as US officials said they have had tough conversations in private.

Earlier yesterday, Netanyahu acknowledged that his government and the Biden administration disagreed over how Gaza should be run once Israel’s war with Hamas ends. Here’s more on the emerging differences between the two leaders.

• Related: Washington expects the most intensive phase of Israel’s war on Hamas in southern Gaza to be scaled back and become more targeted as soon as early January, US officials said.

Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: EU reports monthly industrial production figures, while the UK releases its monthly GDP estimate for October.

• Monetary policy: The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady when it announces its latest monetary policy decision.

• Reports: Opec publishes its monthly Oil Market Report.

Five more top stories

1. China’s President Xi Jinping lauded Beijing’s security and commercial ties with Vietnam yesterday as he kicked off a state visit to the south-east Asian country. Vietnam has become a critical global supply hub not only for western companies diversifying out of China but also for Chinese manufacturers. Xi’s trip also sought to counter growing ties between the US and Vietnam.

• US-China news: The Federal Reserve should be required to stress test US banks’ ability to “withstand a potential sudden loss of market access to China”, according to a congressional committee.

2. The UN climate summit was headed towards eleventh-hour negotiations yesterday as the majority of countries present clashed with Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing nations over whether to commit to the phaseout of fossil fuels. Diplomats said Riyadh was the key obstacle to a stronger declaration and was backed by other Opec and Opec+ countries such as Iraq and Russia.

3. The US has hit companies in Turkey, the UAE and China with sanctions as part of a sweeping effort to stop the Russian defence industry easily obtaining sensitive technologies for Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. More than 250 entities were covered by the measures, which also reached deep into Russia’s war economy, even targeting a provincial bakery refitted to make drones.

4. Indian authorities have stepped up efforts to control domestic supplies and prices of agricultural commodities such as sugar, onions and wheat ahead of next year’s general election. The moves came on top of existing restrictions on exports of rice, wheat and sugar that have sent shockwaves through global markets.

5. UK businesses in China see 2024 as a “pivotal year” for Beijing to address growing concerns over its flagging economy and investment environment, the British Chambers of Commerce said yesterday. A survey of UK companies across China showed sentiment had improved from record levels of pessimism last year, but 60 per cent of respondents still believed business was more challenging than in 2022.

News in-depth

India’s appeal as a “China plus one” manufacturing hub may depend on how the country and foreign investors resolve one glaring issue: how and where to get enough workers in the right place. As the likes of Apple and Foxconn shift more production to India, executives hope staff will be willing to leave their homes and families to live on site at factories — with a dormitory bed as their only private space.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Iran’s ‘first lady’: It is highly unusual for the wife of an Iranian leader to promote her own views. But Jamileh-Sadat Alamolhoda has broken with tradition to speak to the FT.

• Kishore Mahbubani: The west is losing the respect of the rest of the world, writes The Asian 21st Century author, who calls for the west and the global south to talk to each other as equals.

• China’s deflation challenge: The country should stimulate consumption with spending on education, healthcare and public housing, writes Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia economist Chetan Ahya.

Chart of the day

A boom in private equity helped turn Kirkland & Ellis into the world’s most profitable law firm. But as dealmaking slows amid rising interest rates, the Chicago firm faces a reckoning, its fortunes entwined with those of the $13tn private capital industry.

Four years after it was razed in a bushfire, Australia’s Southern Ocean Lodge has risen from the ashes and welcomed its first guests last week. The FT’s Maria Shollenbarger recounts the emotional reopening of the celebrated wilderness lodge on Kangaroo Island.

Additional contributions from Tee Zhuo and Gordon Smith

Good morning. Joe Biden said Benjamin Netanyahu must change tack, warning that Israel’s “indiscriminate bombing” in Gaza risked leaving the country isolated.

Offering his harshest criticism of the Israeli prime minister’s far-right coalition since Israel began its military offensive in response to Hamas’s October 7 attack, the US president said Israel is “starting to lose . . . support” around the world.

Speaking to donors at a political fundraiser, Biden described Netanyahu’s coalition as “the most conservative government in Israel’s history . . . [that] doesn’t want a two-state solution”, adding: “I think he has to change, and with this government, this government in Israel is making it very difficult for him to move.”

Biden until now had largely resisted publicly pressuring Netanyahu even as US officials said they have had tough conversations in private.

Earlier yesterday, Netanyahu acknowledged that his government and the Biden administration disagreed over how Gaza should be run once Israel’s war with Hamas ends. Here’s more on the emerging differences between the two leaders.

• Related: Washington expects the most intensive phase of Israel’s war on Hamas in southern Gaza to be scaled back and become more targeted as soon as early January, US officials said.

Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: EU reports monthly industrial production figures, while the UK releases its monthly GDP estimate for October.

• Monetary policy: The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady when it announces its latest monetary policy decision.

• Reports: Opec publishes its monthly Oil Market Report.

Five more top stories

1. China’s President Xi Jinping lauded Beijing’s security and commercial ties with Vietnam yesterday as he kicked off a state visit to the south-east Asian country. Vietnam has become a critical global supply hub not only for western companies diversifying out of China but also for Chinese manufacturers. Xi’s trip also sought to counter growing ties between the US and Vietnam.

• US-China news: The Federal Reserve should be required to stress test US banks’ ability to “withstand a potential sudden loss of market access to China”, according to a congressional committee.

2. The UN climate summit was headed towards eleventh-hour negotiations yesterday as the majority of countries present clashed with Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing nations over whether to commit to the phaseout of fossil fuels. Diplomats said Riyadh was the key obstacle to a stronger declaration and was backed by other Opec and Opec+ countries such as Iraq and Russia.

3. The US has hit companies in Turkey, the UAE and China with sanctions as part of a sweeping effort to stop the Russian defence industry easily obtaining sensitive technologies for Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. More than 250 entities were covered by the measures, which also reached deep into Russia’s war economy, even targeting a provincial bakery refitted to make drones.

4. Indian authorities have stepped up efforts to control domestic supplies and prices of agricultural commodities such as sugar, onions and wheat ahead of next year’s general election. The moves came on top of existing restrictions on exports of rice, wheat and sugar that have sent shockwaves through global markets.

5. UK businesses in China see 2024 as a “pivotal year” for Beijing to address growing concerns over its flagging economy and investment environment, the British Chambers of Commerce said yesterday. A survey of UK companies across China showed sentiment had improved from record levels of pessimism last year, but 60 per cent of respondents still believed business was more challenging than in 2022.

News in-depth

India’s appeal as a “China plus one” manufacturing hub may depend on how the country and foreign investors resolve one glaring issue: how and where to get enough workers in the right place. As the likes of Apple and Foxconn shift more production to India, executives hope staff will be willing to leave their homes and families to live on site at factories — with a dormitory bed as their only private space.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Iran’s ‘first lady’: It is highly unusual for the wife of an Iranian leader to promote her own views. But Jamileh-Sadat Alamolhoda has broken with tradition to speak to the FT.

• Kishore Mahbubani: The west is losing the respect of the rest of the world, writes The Asian 21st Century author, who calls for the west and the global south to talk to each other as equals.

• China’s deflation challenge: The country should stimulate consumption with spending on education, healthcare and public housing, writes Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia economist Chetan Ahya.

Chart of the day

A boom in private equity helped turn Kirkland & Ellis into the world’s most profitable law firm. But as dealmaking slows amid rising interest rates, the Chicago firm faces a reckoning, its fortunes entwined with those of the $13tn private capital industry.

Four years after it was razed in a bushfire, Australia’s Southern Ocean Lodge has risen from the ashes and welcomed its first guests last week. The FT’s Maria Shollenbarger recounts the emotional reopening of the celebrated wilderness lodge on Kangaroo Island.

Additional contributions from Tee Zhuo and Gordon Smith

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (C), accompanied by US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (R) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (L), arrives to meet with members of the U.S. Senate on Capitol Hill on Dec. 12. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP

The Wall Street Journal, citing the declassified U.S. intelligence assessment, said the conflict in Ukraine “has sharply set back 15 years of Russian effort to modernize its ground force.” https://t.co/ZFCZ8o3o6Z

— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) December 12, 2023